What do Peruvian fisherman, Ricky Bobby and hurricanes have in common/Part II of II?
In part one; I discussed the significance, global reach and awesome power of the weather phenomenon known as El Nino. Now we will look at what the Panhandle of Florida can expect from El Nino. After the severe El Nino weather event of 1997/98, scientists began looking at ways to study past El Nino events and dig deeper into their effects on plants to better understand the economic and environmental impacts. As El Nino is a global weather event, scientific studies were conducted around the world and here in our own backyard. So what does a warm water mass originating in Indonesia and moving across the Pacific have to do with my Oak tree in the front yard? Well, more than you might think. El Nino typically provides an opposite weather pattern to what is traditionally found in our area. If winters are typically dry, with mild temperatures and mild thunderstorms, El Nino will more likely produce a wet, cold winter with increased tornado activity. If you like probability, there is a 70% chance Florida will be cloudier and cooler than normal this fall. I’m hoping for snow at the beach!!!
Urban forests are disturbed stands. This is not meant to say that urban forests are disturbed in a Sasha Baren Cohen in Bruno kind of way but instead that once intact stands of trees have now been segregated to make way for roads, buildings, development, etc. As these “stands” become smaller with increased urban sprawl, the effects of changing weather can have a greater impact. A recent study conducted by scientists from the Netherlands showed tree mortality increased by as much as 23% during and immediately following El Nino events. I’m not very good at math but that means that as many as one out of every four trees is affected by El Nino. How do these tricky Dutchman know all this? Tree Ring Science or paleoclimatology of course. Paleoclimatologists can study the growth rings of trees to determine the duration, severity and effects of past El Nino’s. Large growth rings indicate a rainy season while small growth rings would be indicative of a dry season. Depending on where the tree is located, El Nino conditions can be seen within the growth rings of trees. Currently, the oldest tree-ring chronology dates back 10,000 years.
El Nino conditions will be a perfect storm for pests and fungi this winter and into next spring. The recent increase in the presence of Oak leaf blister is only the beginning. Armored scale, Magnolia white scale, wood borers, aphids and other pests that prefer the aforementioned El Nino conditions will thrive this fall. The increased severity of winter storms will cause tree failure if trees have not been properly maintained. The rotating winds of a tornado are much more damaging to a trees nutrient and water vascular delivery system than hurricanes straight-line winds.
The advances in the science of climatology give us more advanced warning than ever before the effects of El Nino are coming. Let’s do our part to preserve and protect our trees now. Remember, the best defense against pest and fungal infestation is a vigorous healthy tree. Please be on the lookout for my next blog to discuss what specific actions you can take to improve the health of your trees. Till next time, check me out on Twitter @Robstree.
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