Part I of II
If you thought June was hotter than normal this year, that’s because it was. How hot was it? Hotter than a stolen tamale. Hotter than Winona Rider’s sweater. Or, to quote Ricky Bobby, “Hotter than a velvet painting of a whale and a dolphin gettin’”…ok, you get the idea. But what is causing this change in weather and what is the impact for us along the gulf coast? The answer is El Nino/Modoki. Yes, El Nino is back and it’s new and improved with a new name and some new effects for us along the emerald coast. This is not your fathers’ El Nino. This El Nino forms in the central Pacific instead of the eastern Pacific. El Nino Modoki (Japanese for “similar but different”) is easier to predict but the effects differ from the historical El Nino in that hurricane frequency, strength and landfall probability will increase.
The powerful weather phenomenon called El Nino dates back to the early 1890’s and the fishing villages of Peru from which its name derives. During the Christmas season, the locals would sometimes notice the trade winds shift and with that shift came warmer waters and less fish. As the fish were less abundant, it gave the fisherman extra time to spend with family and mend their nets. Because this weather event coincided with the Christmas season, they decided to name the event El Nino or “the Christ child.” What starts as an atmospheric event soon becomes an oceanic event and then effects global weather patterns from Indonesia to Peru. The awesome power of an El Nino is second only to the change of the seasons when it comes to global weather.
Depending on who you listen to, El Nino is either very good or very bad for the gulf coast. In the “good” camp is Florida State University professor Dr. James O’Brien, also known as “Dr. El Nino” because of his expertise on the subject, who believes this will be a drier than normal September/October with reduced hurricane activity. And in the “bad” camp is Peter Webster, Professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Mr. Webster commented that, “normally, El Nino results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall.” I don’t know about you, but that whole part about “greater frequency” and “landfall” kind of gives me the heebie jeebies. If it is one thing Northwest Florida does not need, its more tropical storms. Last year was tied for fourth in terms of active named storms (16) and hurricanes (5). In terms of hurricanes, it ranks 5th since 1944, the first year hurricane hunter aircraft were deployed to monitor tropical storms.
In my next post, I will explain the many impacts this weather event will have on the trees in our area and how you can better prepare for the next storm before it happens. This new El Nino should give hurricane experts advanced warning of upcoming tropical cyclones like never before but our civic responsibility remains the same. We must stay aware and prepare.
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